Every point is a model release. The frontier lines track the running best score in each camp, and the lag is the horizontal distance between them — how long open weights needed to reach a level proprietary models had already shipped.
The stepped lines are the real frontier — each step is a model that set a new record. The soft curve behind is the smoothed trend, and the shaded band is the standing gap. Faint dots are all other releases.
How many months open weights trailed proprietary at each point in history. A wider smoothing window fits the trend across more releases, so the line follows the underlying pace instead of the accident of release timing.
The same gap read along the capability axis instead of the calendar: to reach a given index score, how much longer did open weights need than proprietary did? Rising to the right means the gap widens as models get stronger; falling means open weights are closing in at the frontier.
Two independent acquisition tracks are merged field by field, with the more certain source winning each field rather than one source winning outright.
| Track | Status | Records | Contributes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Website crawl | live | 51 | Open-source licence category, reasoning flag |
| Artificial Analysis API | live | 608 | Intelligence Index, release dates, coverage |
Open-weights classification resolved from the website for 81 models, and inferred for 514 where neither source carried a flag.